Reclaiming the Cutting Edge in the Drone Age
Capstones, 5.15.26
It’s fitting that Sagamore Institute’s 2026 Midwest Defense Summit convenes in Dayton, Ohio, home of the Wright Brothers. Bridging the past and future of defense, the Summit showcases the Heartland’s growing contributions to America’s defense industrial base, munitions manufacturing, and airpower—both manned and unmanned.
Beginnings
It’s well-known that Orville and Wilbur Wright made their famed first flight in North Carlina. Lesser known is that they began experimenting with flying machines in Ohio. They even constructed a wind tunnel near Dayton to research optimum wing shape.
They conducted their first flight tests in Kitty Hawk in 1900. By 1902, they had carried out hundreds of “gliding flights,” and then began focusing on powered flight, which they proved possible on December 17, 1903. Orville wrote in his journal that the “flight lasted only 12 seconds, but it was nevertheless the first in the history of the world in which a machine carrying a man had raised itself by its own power into the air in full flight, had sailed forward without reduction of speed, and had finally landed at a point as high as that from which it started.”
A year later, the Wright Brothers’ plane flew for five minutes. By autumn 1905, it flew 18 minutes and traveled 11 miles; then 25 minutes covering 15 miles; then 33 minutes covering 20 miles; then 38 minutes covering a distance of more than 24 miles.
The Wright Brothers soon presented their “aerial scouting machine” to the Army. Though they initially passed on the offer, Army officials experienced a change of heart in 1907, after a member of Congress shared an article about the “aeroplane” with President Theodore Roosevelt. Washington’s one-eighty may also have been spurred by British and French interest in the Wright Brothers’ invention.
Through it all, historian Jack Warren explains, “Both Wrights had an unusual aptitude for solving mechanical problems…combined with independence of mind and spirit, patience, humility, confidence, determination, the ability to focus, and no small amount of courage.”
Evolution
The Wright Brothers’ all-consuming goal was manned flight—building a machine that could carry human pilots into the skies. Ironically, the goal of their successors is unmanned flight—producing pilotless machines that keep humans out of the skies and out of harm’s way.
Drones aren’t new for America’s military. In fact, the U.S. military started using unmanned aircraft in the 1930s to conduct intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR)—what the Wrights called “aerial scouting.”
During Vietnam, the Air Force conducted 3,400 missions using remotely-piloted planes.
During Desert Storm, U.S. warships used drones to track enemy movements and aid in targeting. But sailors aboard the USS Missouri found another use for their drones. Rather than face the business end of the Missouri’s guns, Iraqi soldiers surrendered to the Missouri’s drones—by the dozens. The Baltimore Sunreported it this way: “It had to be a military first…an Iraqi soldier spinning around and around with his hands in the air trying to attract the attention of the pilot of a small plane flying above him. Only it wasn’t a plane. It was a pilotless drone.”
Drones had evolved from playing a passive role in gathering intelligence to being an active player in what was happening in the trenches.
Drones closed the circle a decade later. Weeks after the 9/11 attacks, the CIA converted Predator drones designed for ISR into ground-attack warplanes. Retrofitted with Hellfire missiles, the repurposed Predator targeted jihadist leaders, including the mastermind of the USS Cole attack. The unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) was born—and with it, the Drone Age.
Ten years after that first foray into drone warfare, U.S. military and political leaders embraced drones as their weapon of choice: UCAVs eviscerated al Qaeda’s leadership in the AfPak theater; UCAVs struck the convoy carrying Moammar Qaddafi; a stealthy drone kept vigil over Osama bin Laden’s compound ahead of the SEAL Team 6 raid; a UCAV eliminated al Qaeda’s Anwar al-Awlaki. As then-CIA Director Leon Panetta observed in 2009, drones—with their promise of risk-free war waged by remote control—became “the only game in town in terms of confronting or trying to disrupt the al Qaeda leadership.” Indeed, the Obama administration conducted 542 UCAV strikes.
Between 2001 and 2011, the U.S. drone fleet swelled from 50 planes to 7,000, though the vast majority of those were not ground-attack drones.
The U.S. military’s drone fleet today is dramatically and rapidly changing—evolving from a handful of high-tech and expensive UCAVs like the Predator and the Reaper into a limitless fleet of relatively low-tech, inexpensive, attritable one-way attack drones (OWADs, also known as “kamikaze-drones”) like the Switchblade and LUCAS and even drone-killing drones like the Merops.
Merops interceptor-drones cost about $15,000 per unit. The Merops has been deployed by Ukraine (which has used the system to intercept 1,000 Russian drones) and the U.S. (which rushed thousands to the Middle East during Operation Epic Fury). In addition, Poland, Romania, Lithuania and Denmark are purchasing the Merops.
There’s much more to come. The U.S. will pour nearly $74 billion into drone and counter-drone systems in 2027 alone. By way of comparison, the Pentagon allocated $26 billion to unmanned systems between 2001 and 2013.
The U.S., as of late 2025, was producing 100,000 drones per year. That’s changing: By 2028, the Army alone will procure 1 million drones annually.
In late 2025, the Pentagon stood up its first OWAD squadron—Task Force Scorpion Strike—and based it in the Middle East. Two months later, that squadron was at war with Iran—launching drones that, ironically, were reverse-engineered versions of Iran’s Shahed drone. (Old-school UCAVs also took part in Epic Fury: At least 24 Reaper drones have been lost during the Iran War. That represents 24 to 48 pilots—depending on the manned airframe—not put in harm’s way, not in need of rescue, not killed.)
Importantly, America’s military is brandishing its growing unmanned fleet not just to strike enemies, but also to deter enemies: INDOPACOM commander Adm. Samuel Paparo revealed plans in 2024 to “turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hellscape” if Beijing lunges at Taiwan. Paparo emphasized that the capabilities needed to execute his strategy are “real” and “deliverable.”
Toward that end, the Navy is planning to deploy OWADs capable of launching from any ship, regardless of deck space. In addition, the Navy is flight-testing an unmanned refueler at facilities in Illinois.
The Army is sketching plans for its own unmanned refueler, and some in Congress want to stand up an Army Drone Corps.
The Air Force is shifting its Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program—which teams heavily armed unmanned platforms with manned strike aircraft—into the procurement phase. Likewise, the Marine Corps is grafting a CCA platform into its F-35C fleet. The Marines also are integrating first-person view drones (FPVs)—which stream real-time video to an operator who guides the weapon onto the target—into their toolkit.
Helping hone the skills of those FPV operators, Camp Atterbury in Indiana hosts an FPV drone competition. Dubbed “Top Gun for Drones,” the program tests FPV operators against other drones and counter-drone systems.
Enemies
The U.S. military’s drone developments sound impressive—until we compare them to what America’s enemies are doing. Simply put, America is playing catchup.
While Epic Fury marked the first U.S. use of OWADs, Iran has been launching kamikaze-drones for more than a decade. Long before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, Tehran was using OWADs to hit targets in Syria, Iraq, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Jordan (where Iranian drones killed three U.S. soldiers).
In the war unleashed by October 7, Iran has sprayed most of the region with OWADs—repeatedly targeting Israel; killing six U.S. troops and wounding hundreds more; destroying numerous U.S. warplanes; damaging bases in Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia; and hitting commercial ships.
With Iran’s help, Russia has used OWADs throughout its war on Ukraine. Iranian-designed, Russian-built Shahed variants are responsible for three-quarters of Ukrainian casualties. Russia will produce more than 6 million drones this year and is investing in autonomous, AI-enabled drones.
One analysis concludes that China is producing 12 million drones annually. Both Russia and Ukraine rely on Chinese drones and drone components. The CEO of a Ukrainian drone builder concedes, “If we want to fight effectively, we have to work with China.”
The Russian drone threat is not limited to Ukraine. In 2025 Russia hurled dozens of drones at Poland—not by accident but rather by design: to test NATO defenses and reaction times. Without U.S. leadership, NATO didn’t pass the test—and Putin didn’t pay a price.
Nor is the wider drone threat quarantined “over there.” In March, swarms of drones—origins unknown or at least unpublicized—circled above Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana, which is home to U.S. bomber aircraft. Although the drones didn’t attack the planes, it was an attack. The drone swarm prevented B-52s from taking off to conduct operations in Iran—an ominous signal that the drone threat is already inside our borders.
Indeed, drug cartels and terrorist groups have acquired these weapons and could easily use them to strike targets inside the U.S., as Ukraine illustrated in its Spider’s Web operation, which used FPV drones deployed from semi-trailer trucks to decimate Russia’s manned bomber fleet.
Next Steps
Add it all up, and it’s clear that OWADs and FPVs have punctured two certainties Americans have long taken for granted: air superiority (and often air supremacy) in the battlespace, alongside a homeland secure from air attack. Following are steps America’s policymakers, industry and military should take to reclaim the cutting edge in the Drone Age.
Recruit the FPV generation
Just as the mechanical aptitude of American farm kids working on tractors served as preparation for mastering the mechanized military equipment of World War II, just as computer gaming prepared a generation of high-tech warriors before 9/11, alacrity with drones among America’s young people is a training ground for the Drone Age. Americans younger than 34 comprise 36% of drone operators; 19% of drone operators are younger than 25.
Develop a laser focus
Scarred by Iran’s drone salvos, the U.S. is investing in a range of directed-energy systems--even drone-mounted lasers—to defend against kamikaze-drones and other airborne threats.
Laser defenses are an essential piece of the counter-drone puzzle given the current cost-exchange ratio of air defense: The Shahed kamikaze-drones used by Iran against targets across the Middle East and by Russia against Ukraine cost $35,000 per copy. Hezbollah converts its Zelzal-2 rockets into guided missiles for just $5,000 apiece. Compare those numbers with the defender’s side of the equation: A THAAD interceptor costs $12 million, a Patriot PAC-3 $3 million, an Arrow-3 $2.2 million, a NASAMS interceptor $337,000, an Iron Dome interceptor $60,000. Even the relatively inexpensive Merops costs $15,000 per shot.
Using a $3-million interceptor to take down a $35,000 drone is worth every penny for those in the crosshairs—just ask the thousands of Americans, Israelis, Ukrainians, Emirates, Qataris, Saudis and Kuwaitis alive today because of missile-defense systems—but it’s still a costly proposition, as is replenishing those defensive systems: In 40 days of war, the U.S. burned through about 50% of its Patriot and THAAD interceptors fending off Iranian drones and missiles.
Lasers will shift the cost-exchange ratio to the defender’s favor. The HELIOS laser-intercept system, which has been retrofitted onto USS Preble, costs less than $10 per shot. The LOCUST counter-drone laser system has been strapped to the deck of USS George H.W. Bush. The Navy is adding the ODIN laser-intercept system onto eight destroyers. The Army has deployed four batteries of its Directed Energy Maneuver-Short Range Air Defense to the Middle East. The Army’s Palletized High Energy Laser is now operational. An Army-led joint taskforce is using lasers and microwave systems to defend several stateside bases.
Directed-energy weapons are already battle-tested: Israel has used lasers to intercept dozens of drones. Washington must accelerate the development and forward-deployment of these systems to defeat drone threats.
Learn from Ukraine
Ukraine has trailblazed the use of interceptor-drones. In March alone, Ukraine shot down 33,000 Russian OWADs, relying on homegrown Sting, Odin and Skyfall P1-Sun interceptors, along with the German Tytan and U.S. Merops. Some Ukrainian interceptor-drones cost just $1,000 per unit.
In addition, Ukraine has used OWADs to defend the frontlines—Ukrainian drones killed or wounded more than 240,000 Russian soldiers in 2025—and to strike deep into Russian territory. Ukrainian drones are hitting Russian targets on the Baltic Sea (580 miles from Ukrainian soil) and have torched 40% of Russia’s oil-export capacity.
Ukraine, which has launched as many as 9,000 kamikaze-drones in a day, will produce more than 7 million drones this year.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE are procuring Ukrainian interceptor-drones. The U.S. military has even turned to Ukraine to strengthen counter-drone defenses: Ukrainian-trained U.S. personnel are using Ukraine’s Sky Map drone-detection system at Middle East bases.
“We are ready to deliver results,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declares, citing Ukraine’s “experience…training…software for integrating various military equipment into a single system…[and] inexpensive drones and joint production lines to manufacture them.”
To defend U.S. interests, Washington must set aside pride, pettiness and personality conflicts—and learn from Kiev.
Decouple from China
“On the eve of World War I, Britain was dependent on Germany for industrial and even military technology,” the Claremont Institute’s Christopher Caldwell observes, “There are parallels in America’s dependence on China today.”
Indeed, a staggering 77.7% of U.S. weapons systems rely on Chinese supply chains for specific inputs and components—especially rare earth elements and energetics.
The reason: America’s defense industrial base (DIB) is a shell of what it was before the fall of the Berlin Wall—and what it needs to be going forward. The 51 defense firms that once served as the arsenal of democracy have been whittled down to five.
A clearinghouse of U.S. drone manufacturers lists dozens of firms, including several based in the Heartland—Kansas, North Dakota, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Texas. Our defenders need more of these tools to deter our enemies and defend our interests, which means we need more firms to answer the call, which means we need Washington to return to long-term defense investment, procurement and planning.
There are scores of legislative proposals aimed at reviving the DIB percolating in Congress, but a badly fragmented Washington seems unable to address this urgent task.
Rebuild and reimagine the arsenal of democracy
Our allies can help us through this danger zone.
When China cut off supplies of a key element needed in the Tomahawk’s trajectory system, Raytheon turned to factories in Briain and France. Raytheon also is working with European partners to double Patriot production. Norway is supplying the U.S. Navy with antiship missiles and the U.S. Air Force with Joint Strike Missiles. U.S. Marines are using Israeli Iron Dome batteries.
Israel has sent Patriot and counter-drone systems to Ukraine; Barak air-defense systems to Slovakia; Arrow missile-defense systems to Germany; and David’s Sling air-defense systems to Finland.
Germany accounts for 30% of Israel’s military aid. Germany’s Rheinmetall is building arms-production factories inside Ukraine and an integrated counter-drone defense across Germany.
Britain is building six ammunition factories and a factory for howitzers. Poland has earned U.S. approval to produce Patriot launchers, Israeli approval to produce Spike antitank missiles and South Korean approval to produce K2 tanks.
South Korea has delivered tanks and artillery to Poland—and artillery shells to Ukraine via the U.S. Japan is building frigates for Australia; has transferred Patriot missiles to America to backfill inventory sent to Ukraine; provided counter-drone systems to Ukraine; and delivered warships to the Philippines. Taiwan is expanding production of OWADs—and shipping scores of them to Poland.
The strength of this 21st-century version of the arsenal of democracy is collaboration. Again, given the nature of the threats, there’s no time for Washington to succumb to pride or the not-invented-here syndrome.
Set the standard
The Drone Age isn’t the first revolution in warfare. But it may be one of the most rapid, most consequential and most disruptive. Opposing swarms of anonymous—and soon autonomous—drones roaming about the earth does not sound like a recipe for global stability—or U.S. security—which is why some of us argued at the dawn of the Drone Age that policymakers invest time and thought to the moral, constitutional, and geostrategic implications of unmanned combat.
Alas, drones aren’t going to disappear from the world’s arsenals. Given that reality, the American people should expect drones to be used only in ways that conform with our values; the American military should ensure that humans remain in the decision-making loop; and the American government, as it has with otherweapons, should lead the civilized world in developing standards for appropriate use of unmanned systems.
Courage
The Wright Brothers’ first flight covered just 120 feet—less than the wingspan of a Global Hawk drone—and lasted all of 12 seconds. Some drones can stay aloft for months at a time.
While much has changed since that first flight at Kitty Hawk, what’s most important remains the same: To defend the nation’s interests, today’s engineers, inventors, policymakers and warriors must face the problems confronting us with humility, confidence, determination, focus and “no small amount of courage”—just like Wilbur and Orville Wright.