Broader Lessons of the Middle East War
Real Clear Defense, 3.20.26
The Middle East War has opened a new chapter in the decades-long struggle between the community of nations and the Islamic Republic of Iran—a chapter that highlights a number of lessons America and its allies should heed when the guns fall silent.
The problem with Iran is the very nature of the Iranian regime
The U.S. and Europe spent much of the last 20 years trying to induce and incentivize Iran to behave like a normal country. In response, Iran trained, funded and equipped Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Iraq; supported brutal dictators (Syria) and undermined nascent democracies (Iraq); continued its drive for nuclear weapons; locked out IAEA inspectors; harbored al-Qaeda’s leader; used proxies to kill Americans; attacked international shipping; bankrolled the beastly Hamas assault of October 7, 2023; tried to assassinate a former U.S. president; and massacred 36,000 of its own people.
In response to the U.S.-Israel air campaign, Iran would be justified to strike Israeli and U.S. military targets. But in keeping with its outlaw nature, Iran sprayed the entire region with terror weapons—striking desalination facilities in Bahrain; unfettering Hezbollah (again) to pound Israel with rockets; hitting civilian airports in Azerbaijan, the UAE and Kuwait; bombing hotels in the UAE and Iraq; attacking commercial ships; firing cluster-munitions at population centers.
Add it all up, and the Islamic Republic is not a regime that engages in terrorism, but a terrorist organization that runs a regime. Until that changes—until the very nature of Iran’s government changes—Iran will be an enemy of civilization.
Airpower is not enough to change a regime
The air campaign against Iran has rubbled its nuclear-weapons program, eliminated its navy, removed layers of leadership, killed scores of regime loyalists, and destroyed vast stockpiles of weaponry. However, as evidenced by the regime’s new leader—the son of the regime’s previous leader, elevated by the regime’s remaining rotten core—airpower has not changed the regime. That’s unsurprising to anyone who has followed the news the past several decades. Air campaigns against Libya in the 1980s, Iraq in the early 1990s and Serbia in the late 1990s didn’t change those regimes. However, airpower in support of indigenous ground forces did topple the Taliban after 9/11, end Gaddafi’s government in 2011 and destroy the ISIS caliphate.
Drones are the new asymmetric equalizer
What Russia learned in Ukraine, the U.S. is learning in the Gulf: Cheap, easy to mass-produce and difficult to stop when launched in large numbers, one-way attack drones wreak havoc in the battlespace. Their loitering capabilities, expendability and stealthiness (due to their size, their ability to fly below air-defense radar and sometimes their material composition) give overmatched combatants a potent weapon to use against larger and/or more advanced militaries—and pose a threat to something the U.S. military has prioritized since World War II: control of the skies.
Russia is no friend
Russia is providing Tehran intelligence to target U.S. assets. Some rationalize this as Russia returning the favor for the U.S. providing intelligence and weapons to Ukraine. Fair enough. But it pays to recall that, four years before the U.S. rushed defensive equipment to help Ukraine repel the Russian onslaught, Russia provided arms to the Taliban for attacks against U.S. troops. Russia provided targeting data to assist Houthi attacks on U.S. warships and commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea. And the same drones Russia uses to kill Ukrainians are being used to kill Americans. In short, Russia is an enemy—unworthy of U.S. militaryhonors or fawning American emissaries or “two more weeks” of deference.
Because the world’s threats are connected, America’s security cannot be compartmentalized
Notwithstanding the administration’s focus on “homeland and hemisphere,” America’s security and interests cannot be neatly compartmentalized—or defended—within certain regions of the globe. This world and its many threats are connected: When Ukraine became a blood-soaked quagmire, Putin enticed Iran to build drones for Russia’s battered army. Iran’s drones, in turn, enabled Russia to prolong its war on Ukraine. Russia, in turn, shared intelligence and air-defense systems with Iran. And now Iran is using the same weapons and tactics it exported to Russia against U.S. targets.
The lesson of 1941—a lesson too many Americans have forgotten or never learned—is that the oceans cannot protect us from the world. That’s why, in the decades after World War II, America engaged the world, planted and nurtured alliances, and maintained a military with global presence—not to go looking for problems, but to address problems before they explode into something unmanageable.
Allies make a difference
America’s not-so-secret weapon is its interconnected system of alliances, which serve as sources of diplomatic and material support, layers of strategic depth, outer rings of America’s own security, and force-multipliers for American power.
Israel, for example, destroyed Iran’s air defenses in 2024, thus kicking open the door for last June’s airstrikes and for the current operation; spearheaded the airstrike that decapitated Iran’s regime; and has carried out 48% of strike sorties in this round of fighting—a markedly larger share of the burden than allied contributions in previous campaigns. In addition, during the past 28 months, Israel has whittled-down Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities, eviscerated Hezbollah’s ranks, and erased Syria’s WMD stockpiles—all threats to America’s security.
The Gulf Arab states have carried much of the load in defending themselves, intercepting more than 2,000 Iranian missiles and drones.
Britain has dispatched ships and aircraft to Cyprus, and fighter-jets to Qatar, to intercept Iranian threats. British warplanes have knocked down drones flying through Iraqi airspace toward Israel. And U.S. assets are deploying from British bases.
Likewise, Portugal, Romania, Italy and Greece are allowing U.S. planes to fly from their bases.
Greece has sent warships and fighter-jets to Cyprus. Italy has deployed warships to protect Cyprus as well as air-defense and anti-missile systems to the Gulf. France sent its aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean to provide air defense and is organizing a coalition to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
Almost three dozen allies are coordinating the release of oil from national strategic reserves.
Germany is providing perhaps the most important asset of all: moral clarity. “The mullah regime is a terrorist regime responsible for decades of oppression of the Iranian people,” Chancellor Merz intones. “The regime threatens the very existence of the State of Israel and is responsible for Hamas’ and Hezbollah’s terrorism…Iran’s nuclear and missile programs threaten peace and security…Its collaboration with terrorist organizations endangers our allies and ourselves.” He adds: “We stand with Israel…which is fighting for its existence.”
These partners and allies should never be treated as punching bags or liabilities, but as vital resources. As Gen. James Mattis observes, “The strength of our nation is inextricably linked to the strength of our unique and comprehensive system of alliances.”
The leader of the free world responds to challenges with grace and grit, tenacity and magnanimity
As Iran pelted U.S. bases with deadly drone strikes, Washington asked Ukraine for help. This was President Zelensky’s answer: “Immediately…I said, yes, of course, we will send our experts.” There was no made-for-TV lecturing, no revisionist nonsense, no moral relativism from Ukraine’s president—just a helping hand for allies under attack. In offering that help, President Zelensky proved himself, yet again, to be the leader of the free world.
President Zelensky is man of his word. Ukrainian trainers are in the region helping American, British and Arab troops deploy drone-interceptors. Hopefully, someone in the administration thanked him.